Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, reiterates that predicting who would win the Assin North Constituency seat is difficult.
He believes the race will be won by a very tiny margin, making it impossible to determine who will win.
“I have no idea who is going to win. This is the most challenging by-election. Even having interviewed 10,000 voters, I find it impossible to make a decision,” he continued.
Mr. Dankwa was interviewed on Citi TV’s Point of View on Monday in Accra.
This follows a new poll conducted by his outfit which revealed that Charles Opoku, the parliamentary candidate for the New Patriotic Party (NPP), holds a slight advantage over James Gyakye Quayson, the parliamentary candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
According to the poll, 45.6% of the respondents expressed their intention to vote for James Gyakye Quayson, while 46.7% declared their support for Charles Opoku. However, the results also highlighted that 6.9% of voters remain undecided, making their votes pivotal in determining the outcome of the election on Tuesday.
Mr. Dankwah said Mr. Opoku led in the first tracking poll with 57% to 38% against Mr. Quayson, but his lead has since narrowed as the campaign has progressed. He said Mr. Opoku is currently leading by 1.1%, but this margin could easily be reversed if the undecided voters do not turn out to vote.
“6.9% of voters are undecided, meaning the fate of the race very much lies in the hands of undecided voters,” he added.
Mr. Dankwah said the survey also revealed that Mr. Quayson leads in 11 out of the 18 electoral areas, while Mr. Opoku leads in 7 areas. He added that Mr. Opoku has a strong lead among voters aged 18-24 and 25-34, while Mr. Quayson leads in older groups.
“However, evidence shows that young voters could be unreliable voters, and if they fail to turn out in their numbers as the poll suggests, this could be a blow to Mr. Opoku’s chances,” he added.
